James Cameron’s return to the world of Pandora continues to be a fascinatig case study in box office longevity. While Avatar: Fire and Ash may not be matching the record-shattering heights of its predecessor, The Way of Water, it is proving that the franchise still possesses the “long legs” necessary to outlast seasonal blockbusters. Two months into its theatrical run, the sci-fi epic is now locked in a close race with one of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s most successful films: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.
The Race for $400 Million
As of late February 2026, Avatar: Fire and Ash has amassed a domestic total of $397.6 million. This puts the film on the doorstep of the prestigious $400 million milestone in North America. To get there, it must first overtake the total earned by 2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which famously finished its domestic run with $404.5 million.
The comparison is particularly striking because of the different paths the two films took to success. Jumanji was a mid-budget marvel that earned more than 10 times its $90 million production cost, becoming a symbol of theatrical endurance. Fire and Ash, conversely, carries the weight of a massive $400 million budget. While it has already dwarfed Jumanji’s global lifetime gross—earning $1.463 billion worldwide compared to Jumanji’s $962 million—the domestic competition remains neck-and-neck.
The Global Outlook
Internationally, Fire and Ash has been a powerhouse, contributing $1.065 billion to its total from overseas markets alone. Despite this success, the film is currently eyeing a global target of $1.5 billion. Analysts suggest that while the movie is a definitive hit, it is likely to be the lowest-grossing entry in the Avatar trilogy so far.
The film faced stiff competition from animated juggernauts like Zootopia 2, which dominated several markets, particularly China. Nevertheless, the Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldaña starrer has maintained a steady presence in North American theaters, benefiting from premium formats like IMAX and 3D, which accounted for a significant portion of its earnings.
What’s Next for Pandora?
The gap between Avatar 3 and Jumanji currently stands at approximately $6.9 million. Given the film’s current momentum—having added $13.6 million in a single mid-February week—industry experts believe it is only a matter of time before Cameron’s threequel moves past The Rock’s adventure.
Surpassing the $400 million mark will solidify Fire and Ash as one of the top domestic performers of 2025. While it may not reach the $2 billion heights of the first two films, its ability to maintain a steady audience two months after release ensures that the future of Avatar 4 and 5 remains on solid ground. For James Cameron, even a “smaller” hit is still a billion-dollar masterclass in cinema.
